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The Kelly Criterion and Bet Sizes
The vast majority of the counting cards player’s edge, up to 90% in some cases, comes from placing big bets when the game offers player advantage. Depending on the count and resulting changes to the basic strategy affect the rest of the edge.
The Kelly criterion, a mathematical principle, indicates that as the player advantage increases so should the player’s bet. What this means in reality is the higher the count is that in order for the player to take advantage of it more should be bet on each hand. When the deck does not represent an advantage for the player then the Kelly criterion recommends the player not bet anything.
The Expected Profit for Counting Cards
When players are able to put in practice the perfect basic strategy then they will reduce the house edge to a low 0.5%. However, a player who knows how to range his bets correctly in a six-deck blackjack game will actually be able to increase his edge to 1% over the casino. When counting Spanish 21 with six decks it is possible to reach advantages up to 2.5%. Of course, the counter’s skill plays heavily into this percentage. Of course, card counting won’t help any player win big in one hand and then be able to get out. It can take many hours of play to develop a big profit using card counting and the player bets are generally only able to be increased from 10 % to 35% based on the card penetration, strategy and of course, the rules.
To further explain the potential winnings of a 1% player advantage consider the following example. If the average bet for a player is $100 then each hand would result in a win of approximately $1. Should the player play about 50 hands per hour this means he will win about $50 per hour.
Based on the six deck rules in Vegas as well as typical bet ranging, any player who is yielding a $50 profit per hour will encounter a standard deviation that is much higher. More or less it would be in the neighborhood of $1400. Because of this card counters need a large bankroll so they can bet and make money. Without a big enough bankroll it will be impossible to finance the game. A typical rule of thumb for blackjack players is to have a bankroll that is 100 times more than each hand’s max bet.
Even at higher counts, a player’s probability of winning won’t change significantly. In fact, it will remain below 50% and the edge a player might have over the house will not come from player probability but rather from actions like insuring, doubling down, and splitting because the house is not able to engage in these activities. |
